Macro Risk Assessment

Clients benefit from an aerial perspective on strategic issues. We provide overviews of the physical and digital environments in which clients operate, or plan to operate.

Bearstone’s macro risk assessments represent a commercial adaptation of military “theatre of operations” analysis, and offer clients insight into how various factors indirectly linked to their business can affect their operations. We conduct macro risk assessments for clients periodically, or on an ad-hoc basis.

Case Study

Bearstone was engaged by a strategic advisor to an international bank that wished to become familiar with the political and macroeconomic situation in Central and Eastern Europe, with specific emphasis on understanding issues in the regional banking sector. The political situation in the region was volatile at the time, the macroeconomic situation was likewise unstable, both of which had a ripple effect on the health of the banking and financial sectors in these countries.

Bearstone collected and analysed intelligence concerning the following focal questions:

  • Overview of the key political players in each country of the CEE region, their political agendas, their chances of winning elections, and their possible influence over the policies of any future government.

  • A tailored survey of public opinion on certain specific issues of particular interest to the client.

  • Analysis of potential influence of any external, international factors over domestic politics and policy, including policies developed by international financial institutions or supranational organisations, such as the European Central Bank, the European Commission, the World Bank, or the IMF.

  • An overview of domestic non-governmental actors, such as local central banks, financial regulators, and chambers of commerce.

  • A review of the key players in the banking sector, including an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of each of the larger banks and their main shareholders.

In addition to digesting the comprehensive report detailing the geopolitical and macro-economic situation in each of the CEE countries, the Bank’s senior management received a detailed briefing about potential regional outcomes and scenarios, and how each might affect the Bank’s expansion plans in the CEE region.

As a result, the Bank’s strategy team was able to customise its market entry strategy to each country, narrowing down potential local partners and devising governmental approach strategies suitable for each country and each situation.